At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 in Davos, Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, delivered a speech that directly addressed a reality many governments have been reluctant to name: the rules-based international order no longer functions as advertised.
Rather than describing a transition, Carney framed the current moment as a rupture. The assumptions that once underpinned global stability—predictable rules, neutral economic integration, and enforceable multilateral norms—have given way to intensified great-power rivalry.
In this new environment, power increasingly operates without constraint, and economic interdependence is no longer a source of shared benefit, but a potential instrument of coercion.
The Cost of Living Within a Useful Fiction
For decades, many countries participated in a system they knew was imperfect. The strongest actors applied rules selectively, enforcement was uneven, and international law was often contingent on power.
Yet the system delivered sufficient stability to justify participation.
Carney argued that this implicit bargain has broken down. When tariffs become leverage, supply chains vulnerabilities, and financial infrastructure a means of pressure, continuing to behave as if mutual benefit is guaranteed becomes a form of self-deception.
In his words, the problem is not the existence of power politics, but the refusal to acknowledge it honestly.
Middle Powers Are Not Powerless
A central theme of the speech was the role of middle powers. Carney rejected the notion that only great powers shape outcomes. While large states may dictate terms bilaterally, middle powers retain influence when they act collectively.
He warned that negotiating individually with a hegemon often leads to accommodation disguised as sovereignty. Competing for favor produces compliance, not autonomy.
The alternative, he argued, lies in cooperation among states that share sufficient interests and values to act together—through flexible, issue-specific coalitions rather than reliance on weakening universal institutions.
Strategic Autonomy Without Illusions
Carney was careful to distinguish strategic autonomy from isolationism. A world of closed fortresses, he noted, would be poorer, less stable, and less sustainable.
Autonomy, in his framing, is about resilience: the capacity to withstand pressure without abandoning sovereignty or principles. This requires honest assessments of vulnerability and deliberate efforts to reduce leverage that can be used for coercion.
Crucially, such efforts are less costly when pursued collectively rather than unilaterally.
Living in Truth as Statecraft
Invoking Václav Havel’s concept of “living in truth,” Carney translated a moral idea into strategic guidance. Living in truth means naming reality as it is, applying standards consistently, and building institutions that function as claimed.
It also means abandoning nostalgia. The old order is not returning, and pretending otherwise only delays necessary adaptation.
Carney concluded that the task ahead is not to restore a lost system, but to build a new one—more resilient, more honest, and grounded in cooperation among those who cannot afford to stand alone.
Image: World Economic Forum / Ciaran McCrickard: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney praised the strengths of the middle powers in his special address at Davos 2026.
About the Author
